Chunk 8: Joe verses the vagina.
During his debate with Bernie Sanders on March 15, eventual Democratic nominee, Joe Biden, announced that his vice-presidential running pick would be a woman. It was quite a declaration, if only because the first rule in selecting a running mate is that they should do the candidate no harm, and women running in US presidential contests have a less than stellar history.
The first woman picked by either the Republican or Democratic party was Geraldine Ferraro, who ran as Walter Mondale's VP in the 1984 election against Reagan and Bush: they lost 525 electoral college votes to 13. Yes, you read that right.
The next was Sarah Palin, who ran as John McCain's VP in the 2008 election against Obama and Biden: they lost 365 to 173.
And then, of course, there was Hillary Clinton, the first female presidential candidate from a major party, who lost to Trump 304 to 227.
So, to win the presidency, Biden is going to have to overcome a nought from three losing streak for the ladies. Which begs the question, if he’s leading so handily in the latest polls, why take the risk?
Well, it turns out that women don't like Trump; black women especially. In the most recent election of 2018 (which they call the mid-terms, where members of the House of Representatives, who serve 2 years, and, depending on when they were first elected, members of the Senate, who serve 6 years, are up for election/reelection), 55% of eligible black women came out to vote. That was a full 6% above the overall turnout nationally. If that happens again this year, Trump is in real trouble.
So, should he pack up his gold-leafed tent and go home?
Not necessarily. Consider this:
Since 1964, more American women than American men have shown up to vote. In the last two elections alone, men have been outvoted by about 10 million ballots.
Since 1980, the overall trend has been for women to vote Democrat and men to vote Republican.
In the 10 presidential elections held since 1980, the Republican candidate has won six times.
I’m sorry, would you mind repeating that? Because if you add one and two, you should get a different answer than three.
Even as the American electorate has, on the whole, been trending with Democratic women, the Republicans have still have won more presidential elections. (In truth, had Hillary Clinton not been so unpopular among white women - who Trump won by 2% in 2016, even after that “grab them by the ….. ” thing - it would have been tied five wins apiece.)
Joe Biden doesn't have that problem. Women love him (not like that), black women in particular. Which is important, as they have long been considered the backbone of the Democratic party. Biden wants/needs to find a reason to motivate all these women to come out on November 3. (Remember we talked in Chunk 3 about creating real enthusiasm?)
Hence, he has declared his VP will be a woman. Yes, it would be an enormous deal for a country that has struggled with equal rights; doubly so if she was a person of colour. But from this cynics’s point of view, Biden is doing it because it’s the politically savvy thing to do.
Still, regardless of whether his nominee is black or white, remember, the first rule of picking a running mate? Do no harm. History is not on women’s side (see: Palin, Sarah L.). Because suddenly, Trump, who has been unable to pin Biden down, will have a completely new target.
