Chunk 7: Not President Trump, Candidate Trump.

You've probably heard that things aren't going particularly well for President Trump's reelection campaign. People much smarter than me will tell you that, well, what can you expect? The Coronavirus is spreading, the US economy is tanking and street marches are growing. 

Okay, so perhaps no one president may have confronted all these issues at the same time. But America has faced each of these matters before; some of them on multiple occasions. 

Woodrow Wilson had to deal with the plague in 1918, even catching it himself. It killed over 675,000 Americans.

Franklin D. Roosevelt had to deal with the Great Depression, beginning in 1929 and lasting five years. And there have been multiple other recessions.

Lyndon Johnson had to deal with people protesting matters of racial inequality. And, unfortunately, rioting in America is hardly a new thing.

So you could argue - and it's my blog, so dammit, I'm going to - that, as overwhelmingly difficult as the challenges presently facing Trump might seem (and as underwhelming as his response has been to address them) these are all just what comes with being an American president. It’s called governing. There's a reason why they call it the hardest job in the world.

The issues he faces day to day are his day job; the 2020 campaign is about trying to keep that job. Accordingly, the two should be separated. 

So, let us - if only for the remainder of this page - forget about Trump the president and talk about Trump the candidate. What's going pear-shaped?

Well, regardless of what you think of him, Trump is an incredible narrator. For almost six years now, he has made himself the story. That is no easy feat (try getting someone to remain completely interested in you for just six minutes - I dare you). But right now, when he needs it most, Trump has lost complete control of that narrative. 

It was a trick he first used to devastating political effect in 2015 when trying to win the Republican presidential nomination. Armed with 140 characters and an itchy Twitter finger, he moved early to mercilessly define his political opponents. Jeb Bush became "low energy". Marco Rubio was "Little Marco". Ted Cruz branded "Lyin' Ted".

The political debates and his rallies that followed became sideshows as he stayed ruthlessly on message. "Make America Great Again" (a phrase he stole from Ronald Reagan), "Build the wall", "Lock her up". All repeated over and over. Now, obviously there was an appetite within America in 2016 for a candidate like Trump. How, or why, that came about is a different story. It’s just important to remember that he was the one clever - or cunning - enough to recognise it and respond to it.

By the time the general election rolled around, he had already defined his Democratic opponent as "Crooked Hillary". Half the job was already done. (Her being such a dreadful electoral candidate also didn't help.)

And in case you're feeling sorry for Hillary the Democrat: don't. In 2012, when Barack Obama was running for reelection against Mitt Romney, he did exactly the same thing Trump would later copy: he defined his opponent early. Using a big financial advantage, Obama front-loaded his advertising spend to define Romney as a rich, aloof, Bain capitalist who wanted to "let Detroit go bankrupt". (Quotes from Romney, like when he said his wife "drives a couple of Cadillacs" didn't really help his cause.)

Which brings us to August of 2020. 

Trump has been trying and trying to do to Joe Biden what he did to so many political opponents before him: define him right from the very start. And so far, nothing has worked. Not "Sleepy Joe". Not all that hoo-hah about Biden's son taking money out of Ukraine. Not that Biden's too old, or not cognitively fit. Not that Biden's a hostage of the radical wing of his party. Not that he's hiding out in his basement. Biden has been a national figure for so long that voters feel like they already know him, and Trump doesn’t seem to have a plan B.

Now, time is running out. The percentage of undecided voters is shrinking, and all the aforementioned crises are making it hard for messages to cut through. Worse still for Trump, by continually making the narrative about himself, he has defined his presidency in harsher, more compelling terms than any of his opponents ever have. He has turned his biggest weapon on himself.

Pre-postal voting starts in some states this week. If he’s not careful, Trump will be riding his one-trick pony straight out of the White House.